Peterborough United will attempt to overturn a 1-0 deficit when they host Oxford United in the League One play-off semi-finals on Wednesday night.
Although defences were on top throughout the match, Peterborough came on particularly strong in the closing stages but the U’s stood firm.
Ronnie Edwards and Ricky-Jade Jones missed chances of a similar quality to Elliott Moore’s 53rd-minute opener but Jed Steer played his part in the 1-0 win.
It was a stark contrast to the 5-0 thrashing that Posh suffered at the Kassam Stadium weeks earlier, with warning signs that they’ll make a fast start on home soil.
This game was always likely to be decided on who can execute at home. Darren Ferguson’s side are unbeaten in 18 of 23 at home, and Oxford in 19 of 23.
It’s a different story on the road though, as the U’s have lost eight and drawn four. A draw would suffice, but that almost certainly involves scoring at least one goal.
Champions Portsmouth are the only side to have left the Weston Homes Stadium with a clean sheet this season and we don’t expect the visitors to buck that trend.
However, 12 of the previous 13 visitors have found the net at least once, including rock-bottom Carlisle three times, and Oxford have found the net in 85% of their matches.
No side has found the net three or more times in home games as often as Peterborough this season, who finished the season as top scorers with 89 goals.
There’s no doubt they have the firepower to turn this tie around and will throw everything at the visitors. However, it seems just as likely they’ll be caught out at the back.
Suggested bets
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals