Swansea City can leave Oxford United facing harsh November reality

If Swansea City can win against Oxford United, it leaves the U’s facing a tough month ahead, at risk of slipping further and further down the Championship table.

A few weeks ago, Oxford found themselves in a really strong position. Des Buckingham’s boys had gone on an unbeaten run that included the likes of West Brom and Burnley.

As weeks have gone by, United have failed to win against the likes of Derby County and Portsmouth, games they were really targeting for three points against sides they were promoted alongside. Importantly, they did not lose either of those games, and remained on an unbeaten run.

But by this point, fans had started to question whether they were five games unbeaten, or five games without a win. After their first of five consecutive draws, United were in 11th place, five points above the drop zone. This was on the 28th September, and United have only picked up four points from a possible 15 since.

Naturally, supporters of a newly promoted team are more lenient when their team don’t win as many games, and that has been true of Oxford fans, especially having overachieved so far this campaign.

But fans realise that it is games against teams like Swansea, who are below them in the table, where United need to win; those cliche six-pointers that often decide your fate, rather than the games against the promotion-chasing sides. They failed to do just that against Luton and Portsmouth, who both sit in the relegation zone as it stands.

Oxford must capitalise on Swansea’s poor form

Luckily for United, Swansea are also going through a poor run of form. In fact, the Swans haven’t won in six games, losing three in the process.

Not only that, the Swans haven’t scored a goal in five games. The last time they did was against Bristol City on 29th September, a worrying statistic for any Swansea fan.

With Oxford still unbeaten at home, and Luke Williams’ side only picking up four points on the road this season, it’s a chance for Oxford to jump back into the top half of the table. They must capitalise.

Oxford have ability to drop key points

Three of United’s five consecutive draws came against Derby, Portsmouth and Luton. All three sides were below the U’s in the table when the game was played. Particular frustration surrounds Portsmouth and Luton, who currently sit in the relegation zone.

These are games United need to win, so worryingly, not only did they drop points in both games, they were somewhat fortunate to avoid defeat. Luton had a two-goal lead and Portsmouth missed a penalty in their 1-1 draw.

Swansea will see an opportunity to turn Oxford over, having watched both Portsmouth and Luton ‘do enough’ to take three points off the U’s. Yes, they showed battling spirit, but they are beatable.

For Oxford, another draw against a team below United would send a message that maybe their positive start to the season was more luck than quality, and would do anything but reassure the supporters things aren’t sliding.

Oxford have a tough month ahead after Swansea

So far this season, United have come up against a few of the big clubs in the division, including Burnley, Blackburn Rovers and West Brom. The U’s managed to hold out for a point in two of those games, and suffered a 2-1 loss to Blackburn despite being the better side at times in that game.

Over the course of the next month, Oxford will face some more tough tests away from home in the form of Watford and Sheffield United.

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The Blades sit fourth at the moment and haven’t lost at home, winning six games at Bramall Lane in all competitions so far this season. The Hornets have gone one better, winning seven home games in all competitions this season without losing.

After only picking up two points from away games this season, the chances of the U’s winning those two are not in their favour, despite some strong results and performances against the cream of the Championship so far.

United also host Middlesbrough, who sit ninth in the table and already have impressive away wins against West Brom and Leeds, under their belt this season in the league and cup. Oxford will be at home and can take belief from that, yet if Boro turn up and both play to their maximum potential, Michael Carrick’s side should come out on top.

Hull City are the only other team below Oxford in the table (as it stands) who United will face in November. That further highlights the importance of this Swansea fixture as an opportunity for three points they must take. Simply, there aren’t many more presentable opportunities for a win before the final month of 2024.

It is a massive game for United. Starting November with a loss isn’t an option. The games only get trickier as the month goes on and every game United fail to win makes the next one that much more important.

A loss on Saturday means they will have to rely on taking points off promotion-chasing opponents, which is a lot easier said than done. As December comes around, United could find themselves in a relegation battle without taking points where they need to across November. Swansea could be just the start.