K Annamalai, the Tamil Nadu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief’s 12-week absence to pursue the Chevening Gurukul Fellowship at Oxford University is being seen as a window of plausible political opportunities to firm up an alliance by members of the BJP and the All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, BJP leaders who asked not to be named told HT.

Annamalai’s sudden announcement that he would attend a course at Oxford University led many to speculate whether he was to be discharged from his responsibilities prematurely after the party’s lacklustre performance in the general election. But party seniors denied such a possibility. Narayanan Thirupathy, TN BJP’s vice president said, “The programme was already on the cards and Annamalai informed the BJP president JP Nadda and other seniors in Delhi. He has their approval and full backing.”

What shifts are expected in Tamil Nadu’s political scene once Annamalai takes flight to London?

The next Tamil Nadu BJP president 

First, who the BJP top brass appoints in his absence as president will determine the course of action for the next two years. A weak hand would indicate Annamalai’s continuity as president after his return. On the contrary, a strong commander would mean the party’s inclination to give in to Annamalai’s opponents within the party who expressed their reservations about his continuity.

Leading the brigade of challengers is the former TN state president and former Telangana governor Tamilisai Soundararajan who openly critiqued Annamalai’s decision to contest the Lok Sabha election without AIADMK’s support. Her comments not only widened the rift within the BJP but also put the spanner in the works on the organisational rejig that Annamalai began after the general election concluded.

Once it was clear that neither the BJP nor the AIADMK would win any seat in the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu, many others too joined Soundararajan and made their displeasure known about Annamalai’s rise as a cult figure in Tamil Nadu state politics. The BJP top brass promptly took note of this and reprimanded the former TS governor with the party’s second-in-command Amit Shah strongly admonishing her.

S Ramesh, who worked closely with political satirist and editor of the Thuglak magazine Cho Ramaswamy, said: “We have to closely watch if the BJP will hastily capitalise on Annamalai’s absence or wait until his return and set its house in order in the meantime. Under Annamalai, the BJP had the makings of becoming an electorally viable rival to the Dravidian parties. But after the Lok Sabha defeat, what is to be seen if the BJP can still topple one of the two strong forces and be the chief opposition.”

The other, more closely watched move, is to see whether or not the BJP sends or responds to AIADMK feelers. Party leaders, who did not wish to be named, said that old-timers from both parties have openly advocated for talks to resume between leaders of their parties despite Annamalai and Edappadi Palanisamy continuing to attack each other publicly.

A portending shift in TN alliances

“We anticipate changes in the next couple of months in state politics. The AIADMK will explore alliances and parties ahead of the 2026 assembly elections,” said an AIADMK leader who did not wish to be named.

The rise of smaller parties in the state and their increasing vote share has triggered concern among the two Dravidian and national parties. three small parties – NTK, VCK, and TVK are known to have a vote share of 7-8% each, making them worthy partners of parties who wish to cross the first past 35% mark to form the government.

Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) party founder actor Joseph Vijay announced that his party would contest the 2026 elections. His criticism of the DMK’s poor handling of the drug menace and the recent hooch tragedy that claimed several lives is seen as an overture to be part of the AIADMK alliance, political analysts said. Thrimavalavan, MP from the Chidambaram constituency and founder of the Viduthalai Chiruthagai Katchi (VCK) who has supported the Tamil nationalist movement in the past is also understood to have expressed a willingness to step out of the Congress-DMK-led INDIA bloc.

However, Sebastian Seeman, whose party Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) contested all 39 seats independently without being part of either alliance led by the two national parties is learned to have shown a willingness to be part of the INDIA bloc, going by the leader’s comments favouring the DMK.

Considering the changing political dynamics in the state, AIADMK has already named the district in charge of the 39 districts in Tamil Nadu, hoping to set its house in order much ahead of the assembly elections, the party leader who HT spoke to said.

“But the crucial pawns in the game are V Sasikala, O Panneerselvam, and TTV Dinakaran who were earlier part of AIADMK when the former general secretary and matriarch J Jayalalitha was around. They represent the Thevar community whose support the party has always counted to affect a significant increase in the vote share,” said S Ramesh.

Deepika Amirapu is a freelance journalist based in Hyderabad.